Investments in renewable energy were at US 211 b i l l i o n i n 2010 a n d d e v e l o p i n g e c o n o m i e s o v e r t o o k d e v e l o p e d o n e s f o r t h e f i r s t t i m e i n t e r m s o f n e w f i n a n c i a l i n v e s t m e n t s i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y . P h o t o v o l t a i c s f o r g e n e r a t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m s u n l i g h t h a s t h e h i g h e s t g r o w t h r a t e a m o n g t h e c o m p e t i n g f o r m s o f r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y a n d h a s n o w b e g u n t o a c h i e v e g r i d p a r i t y i n s o m e r e g i o n s . I f t h e s e t r e n d s o f i n v e s t m e n t s c o n t i n u e , s o l a r e n e r g y w i l l p l a y a m a j o r e c o n o m i c r o l e . W e a n a l y z e t h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s a n d a s s e s s t h e e n s u i n g a m o u n t s o f i n v e s t m e n t a n d e m p l o y m e n t f o r a r a n g e o f s i z e s o f t h e s e c t o r o f s o l a r e n e r g y . W e f i n d t h a t b y 2050 e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m p h o t o v o l t a i c s c o u l d c o v e r u p t o 90 2010 by around 2030 and 1,500 billion by 2050. Employment in photovoltaic manufacturing is predicted to rise to 6 million by 2050. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the core parameters of assumptions is supplied.

Synergien, also Systeme wechselseitigen Nutzens, können kompliziert werden, weil z. B. ein Angehöriger eines derartigen Systems einem anderen helfen kann, dieser einem Dritten usw. und schließlich der Dritte oder Vierte oder noch jemand anders vielleicht wieder dem Ersten. Für die Entwicklung ist es ideal, wenn diese Systeme wechselseitigen Nutzens eine Form annehmen, die als kreuzkatalytisches Netzwerk (Cross Catalytical Network, CCN)1bezeichnet wird. Katalyseist jener Vorgang, wo ein Dritter eine Reaktion beschleunigt oder erleichtert, ohne selbst wesentlich verändert zu werden. Autokatalyse ist jener Prozeß, wo ein System seine eigene Entwicklung beschleunigt („katalysiert“). Dies ist in Abb. 4.1 schematisch dargestellt: Die Unter- nehmung (Rechtecksymbol, bewertet nach ihrem investierten Kapital2) wächst mit einem bestimmten Prozentsatz pro Jahr („normale Wachstumsrate“), z. B. mit 10 % pro Jahr, Abb.4.1 Autokatalytisches Wachstum einer Unternehmung. Je größer die Unternehmung, desto größer ist das absolute Wachstum bei gleicher „normaler Wachstumsrate“, denn 10 % von einer großen Unternehmung sind mehr als 10 % von einer kleinen Unternehmung. Insofern kann eine Unternehmung ein autokatalytisches System darstellen

Introduces the idea of a hierarchical description of systems, and describes methods appropriate for examining the problems associated with diffferent layers of study: a bottom layer of simple data and other details within a single system (for which geographic information systems may be appropriate); an intermediate layer of complex dynamics (eg ecosystem structure and dynamics); and a top, strategic layer which reflects ecosystem changes with such characteristics as diversity, variability, system architecture, resilience and replacement. Applications are discussed in the context of dynamic maps of forest dieback, and changes in agricultural land use at Berchtesgaden, Germany. Dynamic maps have been successful in testing and improving models, in evaluating scientific hypotheses, in finding errors in data and assumptions, and in checking and developing strategies. -P.J.Jarvis

Significance The recent sharp drop in the cost of photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation accompanied by globally rapidly increasing investment in PV plants calls for new planning and management tools for large-scale distributed solar networks. We found that pairs of electricity generation capacity G and storage S , such that S is minimal to provide a given dispatchable electricity capacity for a given G , exhibit a smooth relationship of mutual substitutability between G and S . These G − S isolines support the solution of several tasks. This includes optimizing the size of G and S for dispatchable electricity, optimizing connections between solar parks across time zones for minimizing intermittency, and management of storage in situations of far below average insolation.

Es wird das Konzept für ein makroökonomisches Strukturmodell mit integriertem Innovationsprozesskern zur Analyse und Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vorgestellt. Das geplante Modell soll explizit die Auswirkungen des immer bedeutsamer werdenden IuK-technologischen Innovationsprozesses auf das Wirtschaftswachstum erfassen. Das Modell besteht aus einem makroökonometrischen Teil zur Darstellung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und einem systemdynamischen Teil zur Erfassung des Innovationsprozesses auf mikroökonomischer Ebene. Als Modellteile sind zwei bereits existierende Modelle, das HWWA-Modell und das ISIS-Modell, nach ihrer Erweiterung und Anpassung vorgesehen. Die erforderlichen Modifizierungen, das Verfahren zur Kopplung der beiden Partialmodelle mit unterschiedlicher Periodisierung und die nötigen Arbeitsschritte werden beschrieben.

Luise Rinser: „Aber können Sie sieh vorstellen, daß Ihnen eines Tages ihre Neugier als dumm erscheint und [...] daß Ihnen überhaupt dieser Zivilisationstrieb unwirklich vorkommt und Sie von diesem Rad abspringeni“ (Worte der Mutter von Franz von Assisi in dem Roman „Bruder Feuer“).

Climate change mitigation requires a rapid decrease of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from their present value of 8.4 Gt/C/year to, as of current knowledge, approximately 1 GtC/year by the end of the century. The necessary decrease of GHG emissions will have large impacts on existing and new investments with long lifetimes, such coal-fired power plants or buildings. Strategic decision making for major investments can be facilitated by indicators that express the likelihood of costly retrofitting or shut-down of carbon intensive equipment over time. We provide a set of simple indicators that support assessment and decision making in this field. Given a certain emissions target, carbon allowance prices in a cap-and-trade plan will depend on the development of the global economy and the degree to which the target is approached on the global and national levels. The indicators measure the degree to which a given emissions target is approached nationally and assess risks for long-lived investments subject to a range of emissions targets. A comparative case study on existing coal-fired power plants with planned plants and utility-scale photovoltaic power-plants confirms that high risk for coal-fired power plants is emerging. New legislation further confirms this result.

Weil Deutschland mit den derzeitigen und etwa 1930 aufgegriffenen Basisinnovationen so lange erfolgreich war, weist es jetzt viel etablierte Wirtschaft, also Wirtschaft in den Phasen 5 bis 7 auf. Diese etablierte Wirtschaft nutzt die Informations- und Kom- munikationstechnologien zur Rationalisierung, urn eine zunehmende und globale Konkurrenz zu überleben

"In diesem Aufsatz wird der Versuch unternommen, neue Einsichten der Systemforschung auch in die Diskussion über neue regionalökonomische und wachstumspolitische Konzepte einzubringen. Weltweit befindet sich die Wirtschaft, aber auch die Nachfrage nach Produkten in einem massiven Umbruch. Die Probleme von heute sind das Ende der Zukunftsvisionen von gestern und vorgestern. Zukunftswirtschaft wird sich auf zwei verschränkte Bereiche stützen: Information und nachhaltige Ressourcenwirtschaft. Die Aufgabe der ökonomischen und ökologischen Revitalisierung für zahlreiche durch wirtschaftliche Aktivitäten oder unangepaßte Lebensstile verwüstete Regionen wird immer drängender. Es kann nicht jene Wirtschaft erfolgreich aufgebaut werden, die anderswo schon niedergeht. Im wesentlichen werden vier Quellen neuen Wachstums genannt: - weiter wachsende Umweltmärkte, - ein weiterhin sehr dynamischer Informationssektor, der nicht nur direkt, sondern auch als 'Metabranche' den Strukturwandel beschleunigt - und möglicherweise für die erfolgreicheren Standorte ausschließlich Wettbewerbsvorteile begründet, - eine durch wesentlich ausgeweitete Informationsnutzung weit effektivere Ressourcenwirtschaft, - im Bereich der qualitativen Folgen der sich außerordentlich ausweitenden Informationswelt (bis in die Bereiche Ästhetik und Ethik) ergeben sich neue Infrastrukturanforderungen. Alle vier Quellen der Zukunftswirtschaft können und müssen in Synergie zueinander stehen. Die einzelnen Teile des Konzepts passen zusammen wie ein Puzzle. Jedes Teil basiert auf Arbeiten vieler Wissenschaftler aus den letzten 20 Jahren. Die zentrale These in dieser Arbeit lautet, daß Menschen, deren wirtschaftliche Lebensgrundlage darauf beruht, Information für wirtschaftliche Prosperität zu nutzen, d.h. zusammen zu verfeinern und dann aufgabenbezogen einzusetzen, ganz andere Lebensansprüche nicht nur an die Gestaltung ihres Firmenumfeldes, sondern auch ihres Wohn- und Freizeitumfeldes stellen. Es scheint so zu sein, daß die Gesundheit von Ökosystemen und das Wohlergehen von Menschen durch strukturell ähnliche Grundgegebenheiten bedingt werden. Deshalb werden hier die neueren Erkenntnisse aus klassichen Disziplinen der Naturwissenschaft, der Mathematik und der Systemforschung zitiert. Nach Ansicht des Autors handelt es sich bei dem neuen Wissen um Morphogenese und Strukturwandel (als einer Folgeerscheinung insbesondere in der Informationswelt), um einen paradigmatischen Wechsel von nahezu 400-Jahrescharakter. Diese Zusammenhänge werden hier beispielhaft für die Region Leipzig dargestellt; das vorgestellte Konzept ist aber für viele zerstörte Landschaften und Städte anwendbar" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Die sieben Entwicklungsphasen einer Basisinnovation in der Wirtschaft erfolgen ganz entsprechend in den anderen drei Landschaften. Obwohl die Wissens- und die Bewußtseinslandschaft auslösend sind und nicht die Wirtschaft, werden diese Entwicklungen hier zunächst auf die Wirtschaft bezogen, weil dies die wirksamsten Handlungsoptionen eröffnet.

Extensive, obvious, and direct influences of humans on ecosystems are well investigated. Methods are available to deal with these, although much more work is needed. Subtle influences are now becoming an important topic in ecosystems studies. “Subtle,” according to McDonnell and Pickett (Chapter 1, this volume), denotes human influences on ecosystems or interactions of humans with ecosystems that are not obvious, conspicuous, or direct, but are lagged or influenced by past developments or consequences at a distance in time and space, or any combination of these. The word “subtle” does not imply that the influences are negligible (see Russell, Chapter 8, this volume). Indeed they could be extensive.

An information society, its people and its economy can only flourish through sustainability, but sustainability, if at all, is only possible with the means of an information society. Here the active influencing of the ongoing development towards an information society is advocated so that this society becomes socially and environmentally friendly. Many options exist to do this; some are elaborated here. Systems models depict that people are the crucial resource, the bottleneck, for this undertaking. Here a scheme is provided to understand which people are crucial during which period of the present development. The view is systems oriented and is based on an integrated understanding of living, economy, working, housing, and the environment in the information society. The approach has a theoretic foundation and additionally relies on extensive case studies.

Gegenwrtig laufen zwei groe Wandlungsprozesse gleichzeitig ab: Zum einen der bergang zur Informationsgesellschaft, zum anderen die weltweite vielfltige Anstrengung, eine nachhaltige Lebensweise aufzubauen. Das klassische Konzept der Nachhaltigkeit stellt sich bei nherer Betrachtung als vielfltig, kompliziert und in sich widersprchlich heraus. Die Nachhaltigkeit hngt auf zweifache Weise mit der Evolution zusammen: Zum einen kann es Nachhaltigkeit nur geben, wenn diese neben einem Bewahren zugleich eine Evolution - und damit auch eventuelle Verluste an Bestehendem - beinhaltet. Und zum anderen mu sich der Begriff als solcher entwickeln. Gegenwrtig genieen die Wirtschaft und die Schaffung neuer Arbeitspltze weltweit die erste Prioritt. Selbst ein so vorrangiges Ziel wie die Nachhaltigkeit wird dabei zurckgestellt. Jedoch ist eine Vielzahl von Anstrengungen erfolgreich, die die Umweltvertrglicheit und Nachhaltigkeit der Wirtschaft, ihrer Produkte und Verfahren verbessern. Welche Folgen sind dabei fr das Konzept einer nachhaltigen Regionalentwicklung zu beachten?

Bewußtsein, Umwelt, Wirtschaft und Wissen werden hier als vier „Landschaften‘’ im übertragenen Sinn aufgefaßt. Wie der Mensch mit seiner Umwelt umgeht, welche Wirtschaft er aufbaut und welches Wissen er entwickelt, hangt von seinem Denken und seiner Einstellung, also seinem Bewußtsein ab. Die „Bewußtseinslandschaft“ wird hier so verstanden, daß sie die Felder Einstellung, Gefühle, Spiritualität, Intuition und Denken einschliest1. Die „Wirtschaftslandschaft“ enthält die Land- und Forstwirtschaft, die „Wissenslandschaft“ umfaßt auch Know-how und Technologie, und die umgebende städtische und natürliche Landschaft umfaßt die naturnahe, bewirtschaftete oder bebaute, gestaltete, physische Landschaft und die Umwelt, auch im umweltökologischen Sinn (Abb. 2.1). Der Begriff Landschaft wurde gewählt, weil sich jeder dieser vier Bereiche in vielfältigen Umbrüchen befindet, aus denen neu strukturierte vieldimensionale „Raume“, eben „Landschaften“ entsteherr2, Abb.2.1 Wechselwirkungen der „vier Landschaften“ (Queelle: Grossmann et al. 1997c)

Several forms of renewable energy compete for supremacy or for an appropriate role in global energy supply. A form of renewable energy can only play an important role in global energy supply if it fulfills several basic requirements. Its capacity must allow supplying a considerable fraction of present and future energy demand, all materials for its production must be readily available, land demand must not be prohibitive, and prices must reach grid parity in the nearer future. Moreover, a renewable energy technology can only be acceptable if it is politically safe. We supply a collection of indicators which allow assessing competing forms of renewable energy and elucidate why surprise is still a major factor in this field, calling for adaptive management. Photovoltaics (PV) are used as an example of a renewable energy source that looks highly promising, possibly supplemented by solar thermal electricity production (ST). We also show why energy use will contribute to land use problems and discuss ways in which the right choice of renewables may be indispensible in solving these problems.

Electrification of all economic sectors and solar photovoltaics (PV) becoming the lowest-cost electricity generation technology in ever more regions give rise to new potential gains of trade. We develop a stylized analytical model to minimize unit energy cost in autarky, open it to different trade configurations, and evaluate it empirically. We identify large potential gains from interhemispheric and global electricity trade by combining complementary seasonal and diurnal cycles. The corresponding high willingness to pay for large-scale transmission suggests far-reaching political economy and regulatory implications.

1

Die besondere Bedeutung von kreuzkatalytischen Netzen wurde mehrfach verdeutlicht. Das Wissen urn ihre Struktur und Eigenschaften kann systematisch für wirt- schaftliche und regionale Entwickungsprozesse herangezogen werden.

Major relationships between energy systems and oceans are due to marine transportation of energy resources, emissions from use of these resources, and mining and exploration, in particular of natural gas and crude oil. These relationships are poised to change. A multitude of problems have emerged in the fossil fuel energy sector, e.g., “peak oil” and even “peak coal”, wildly fluctuating prices of energy from fossil fuels, and massive emissions causing environmental problems such as ocean acidification. Hence, globally, significant efforts are directed at the creation of new energy systems based on renewable energy. Such systems, if constructed on a large scale, would change many parameters of ocean affairs. Large-scale construction is expected given significant investments in renewable energy systems in different parts of the globe and the prospect that such systems may become competitive in many regions in 2014. We discuss parameters of such renewable energy systems and elaborate effects on transportation of resources and on the wider environment including oceans, and draw conclusions on possible changes for oceans.

Mit dem Übergang zu verstärkt informations- und wissensbasierten Formen neuer Wirtschaft verändern sich auch die Ansprüche der Unternehmen an ihre direkte Umwelt, die Infrastruktur und die Charakteristika von Mitarbeitern und deren Qualifikationen. Der Beitrag zeigt, in welche Richtung die Änderungen gehen werden. Hierzu wird eine Zusammenstellung der wichtigsten Merkmale einiger typischer informationsbasierter Pionierunternehmen vorgelegt. Diese umfaßt eine Unternehmensbeschreibung, Beschreibung der Merkmale ihrer Hauptstandorte, insbesondere auch deren Umwelt- und Freizeitqualität, sowie der geforderten Merkmale ihrer besser qualifizierten Mitarbeiter. Für uns unerwartet war, welche geradezu als drastisch zu nennenden Ansprüche diese Unternehmen an ihre Umweltqualität und an das Freizeitangebot für ihre Mitarbeiter stellen. Hierdurch wird die zunehmende Bedeutung weicher Standortfaktoren für die Attrahierung neuer Wirtschaft unterstrichen.

In recent research, my associates and I presented a complex set of mathematical scenarios in which developed market economies, characterized by mature and new economy industries, evolve into two (or more) geographic regions. The first, almost invariably coastal or along the banks of rivers, is more attractive to investment in both mature and new economy industries, but is subject to higher risk, both market and environmental. Growth in this first sector is innovation and knowledge intensive, characterized by clustering of similar labor skills and firms, and the instigator of extensive net migration. The second sector is less dynamic and often less developed, but subject to less environmental risk. Climatic, natural, and environmental hazards are undergoing change and may, in some cases, become more threatening. Economies, however, are growing, enabling them to adapt to or even mitigate the damaging consequences of these natural hazards. In this paper, I present an economic growth model set in the two sectors and facing damaging hazards. The hazards are of varying predictability, ranging between quantitative risk and subjective uncertainty.

During the last 100 years cities have increasingly mirrored the necessities and attitude of the industrial age. Now „Europe is shifting towards an information-based economy, where networks and network infrastructure play as significant a role as did the rail networks in transforming the European economies in the last century.“ ISPO 1994 The growing information potential, in particular the number of participants in information networks, is dramatically changing the economy and life styles which, in turn, is affecting structures, and the role and importance of cities (see e.g. Knight 1995). The comparative advantages of rural areas compared to cities change, as elaborated by Wuermeling (1995). Mitchell (1996) questions whether cities have a future as „teleworking“ can partially replace commuting as it allows one to work, trade or act from any distance. Urban conglomerations are often no longer attractive to citizens although they still provide more and better jobs than rural areas; urban-rural interactions adapt to the change in lifestyles.

Integrated projects, for example, Global Change, Man and Biosphere or LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research), pose new challenges to construct large, integrated, socio-economic ecological models. Criteria to evaluate and judge models have been around for quite some time, such as quality of calibration, availability of documentation, sb validations, etc. But now additional requirements have to be fulfilled, which are described here. One of the most essential issues may be the partial unpredictability inherent in almost all systems. Here a systematic, encompassing scheme is provided on how to deal with the unexpected. The requirements mentioned before and this scheme are used to evaluate four integrated socio-economic ecological case studies which also involved model construction. The models were also used for predictions. The correctness of predictions and the causes for failures were, for several of these models, repeatedly and thoroughly evaluated. The case studies seem to be representative for the state of the art, also in their weaknesses.

In jeder der vier Landschaften erfolgen derzeit fast beispiellose Urnbrüche, die zwar mit Befürchtungen betrachtet werden können, die aber vor allem Chancen für eine lebensfreundliche Sozial- und Umweltpolitik eröffnen

Zweiweltweite Entwicklungen prägen zunehmend das menschliche Leben: das Bemühen um die Schaffung umweltfreundlicher und zukunftsfähiger Lebensweisen1 und die rasche Entwicklung einer Informationsgesellschaft.

Combinations of dynamic models and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have a vast potential to solve problems. Deficiencies and advantages of GIS and dynamic models are described. A multifacted description of complex systems allows three different types of combining dynamic models and GIS. Different classes of dynamic models are used within these combinations. These are: — complex aggregated dynamic feedback models (e.g. like those of Odum, Forrester or of the AEAM work), — simple generic dynamic models (in particular object oriented models) — models of physics based on partial differential equations (e.g. those for heat conduction or dispersal of noise or transport of gaseous pollutants). The model dynamics are combined with GIS held base maps to produce time series of maps, so called Dynamic Maps. Base maps combine spatial features which are locally important for the dynamic process and are used to either modify or even form the dynamics. Different types of models need different types of GIS-held base maps and are adequate for different types of problems. This paper is based on a number of actual applications of one of these combinations; an overview is provided on potential applications of the whole new approach.

Many of the important hypotheses on the new forest decline were checked in the systemic pilot-project ‘Forest Rosalia’; most have low explanatory power in that research site. Of those measured, only ozone will cause considerable, but not all, damage. Other factors seem to exist which have not yet been sufficiently explored. Evidence and calculations are supplied that important among these might be the aldehydes, organic acids, oxidants including peroxides and radicals. These pollutants act together (perhaps even synergistically) with the ozone in a way which might to a considerable degree explain the extent and form of the new forest decline in wide areas of Austria.

Mitigation, decrease of greenhouse gases, is often regarded as expensive and as a major hurdle to innovation and economic development. Here we describe a systems model that allows assessment of integrated policies for mitigation and economic development. It is highly likely that such policies may yield gains instead of costs, up to a considerable decrease of present emission. This model, and this expectation, is based on accepted knowledge regarding the costs of mitigation. The model describes interrelationships between three complex realms that are at the heart of innovation: human knowledge, the economy, and new key people with knowledge of a basic innovation. The success of real policies normally depends on their appropriate, integrative, and simultaneous approach to all three realms. Development and assessment of such policies might help overcome the present deadlock in mitigation. Through them it should become possible to decrease risks in innovation and to learn to utilize innovation simultaneously for economic growth and for decreases of emissions of greenhouse gases. But appropriate integrated policies are complex to develop and assess. The regionalized global model on innovation and mitigation described here is a step toward facilitating this process.

For decades, the analytic approach has been dominant for the study of many processes. This approach takes into account the parts of the process with many details and then assembles the parts into a plan or answers according to a theory or a blueprint. This is the engineer’s method, and most scientists and planners rely on it. It is useful when we are building a house or a bridge. It is not useful when we are dealing with natural systems for which there is no theory, no blueprint, not even a complete list of parts. In this case, we need another approach that takes the problem as a whole. Hence, in recent decades many systems approaches have been developed (Forrester, 1969 Forrester, 1971;Patten, 1972;Holling, 1978;Odum, 1983) to overcome this situation. A systems approach prefers a more holistic, “global,” or top-down view of the phenomena, even at the cost of losing details.

Die dargestellte Grundlage einer nachhaltigen, umwelt- und menschenfreundlichen Informationsgesellschaft bietet zahlreiche Ansätze für eine Umsetzung.

Die vier Landschaften entwickeln sich miteinander aus den späten Phasen 6 und 7 hin zu den neuen Phasen 1 bis 4. Dies bedeutet den Übergang zu einem informationsreichen Zustand.

This paper wants to put regional sustainable development in the perspective of evolutionary regional systems development related to the Information Society (IS) in Europe. It deals with the challenge of change from an industrial to an information society. At the moment we have the opportunity to shape so-called "new" or "information based" economies during their emergence so that they simultaneously foster environmental objectives. Examples for such economies are from all branches: agriculture, manufacturing, trade, high-tech, and entertainment. Their contribution to regional sustainability can be shaped within wide ranges in their present phase of development. But the precondition for influencing the environmental behavior of these economies depends on the regional creativity to get them started, modified, formed, and put into a compatible regional framework. One approach on the local or regional level is the idea of a "learning region". Here regional science can benefit from manifold contributions from different areas of science, such as the learning organisation by P. Senge, the milieu debate (about innovative or creative milieus) by GREMI, the method of Cross Catalytical Networks (CCNs) and other areas. These ideas are made applicable by using 25 key issues which are preconditions for the creative evolutionary future of a region. In our paper we will report the background and application of a new aproach for regional science and management to build a cooperation between regional sustainability and the emerging information society. This includes a report on case studies for successful regional development in the IS at the local level in several regions.

Research on forest dieback was undertaken in several locations in Germany and Austria. The method used here combines terrestrial data collection, dynamic models, risk maps produced with a geographic information system, aerial photography, remote sensing data, and monitoring of the actual development supported by "dynamic maps'. A simple model for forest damage indicates 1) ozone must be the cause of much of the damage, but it cannot explain all symptoms. 2) Other contributing factors were non-ozone secondary pollutants. -from Author

CCNs setzen voraus, daß hinreichend viele Partner im CCNzu eigenständiger Entwicklung, eigenständigem Wachstum,befähigt sind. Dafür gibt es eine Reihevon Grundbedin- gungen, insbesondere, was bis heute fast immer unberücksichtigt bleibt, daß alle lebenden Systeme und die meisten etwas komplexeren Systeme der Umwelt, der Natur- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften zu sogenanntem mathematisch-chaotischen Verhalten befähigt sind (Abschnitt 10.3.4).

In der Geschichte der letzten 200 Jahre werden Zylden von etwa 50–60 Jahren offenbar, in denen ausgedehnte Branchen verschwanden und in der Folge neue aufstiegen.

Climate policy under partial global compliance raises concerns regarding carbon leakage. While border carbon adjustment (BCA) measures are a potential remedy, they have also been criticised on various grounds. This paper therefore investigates whether a policy fostering the switch to carbon-free technologies can substitute for BCAs. A reason for the effectiveness of a targeted technology policy is that major leakage prone sectors (such as iron and steel), have two main sources of carbon emissions, combustion of fossil fuels and industrial processes. While combustion emissions can be reduced relatively easy by increasing energy efficiency, reducing process emissions requires a switch to low-carbon production processes, e.g. in steel production by deploying electrolysis based on large-scale solar electricity. We show by means of a multi-regional computable general equilibrium analysis that such a switch in steel production technology can eliminate a significant fraction of carbon leakage and also increase sectoral output and welfare. Since the necessary technologies are not available at large scale yet (however, are likely to be by 2020), a transitional BCA scheme may be a crucial supportive instrument to foster such technology switches. Yet, in the long run BCA should be phased out to preserve the incentive for carbon-free innovation.

Starting with a holistic analysis of the nature–human ecosystem, the importance of the new information-based economy for sustainability is elaborated. A major bottleneck in the present development is the availability of people who understand the functioning and essentials of the new economy. Closely linked to the availability of these ‘new key people’ is the necessity to revitalise and preserve ecosystems, even within cities. But favourable developments do not occur on their own. A new link is elaborated which would allow nature in a region to benefit proportionally to regional economic growth. This link becomes practical due to the new economy, which can use resources and land area much more effectively than established industries, and new information and communication technologies foster lifestyles which free land areas for other uses. Examples confirm that this link is a realistic possibility. The conclusions are based on integrated regional and urban projects, management consultation and systems science.

„Dann wird eine Vision Realität: Schöner, hoffnungsvoller, chancenreicher Südraum Leipzig!“ (Hainichen 1996) — „Doch weiträumige Flächen für die Landwirtschaft, Wälder und Erholungsgebiete auf ehemaligem Bergbaugelände werden schon vorausbedacht und können so Beispiel und Anregung sein für die Planenden anderenorts“ (Guth et al. 1990, S. 50). „Das Leipziger Land...als kulturell reiche, extrem gefährdete, aber dennoch der Zuneigung werte Region zu zeigen“ (Guth et al. 1990, S. 4), ist Anliegen der Autoren dieses Beitrages. Welche der in mehreren hundert Gutachten um vielfältige Varianten bereicherten Visionen sind realistisch, wünschenswert, beschäftigungswirksam und ökologisch nachhaltig? Die erste Antwort hierzu ist einfach: Nur informationsreiche und informationsbasierte Wirtschaft in einer hochwertig gestalteten Südraumlandschaft kann eine Chance haben. Da in Deutschland wenigen Menschen deutlich ist, was informationsreiche Wirtschaft bedeutet, sind analytische Verfahren zu Bewertung dieser Optionen und Visionen einzusetzen.

The viability and sustainability of civilizations, corporations, institutions and ecological life‐support systems (CIES) can now effectively be enhanced with new insights, new methods and new strategies. This is urgently needed because CIES's are increasingly more endangered by new as well as long‐known threats and risks. CIES' have many strengths to deal with these but also many deficiencies or weaknesses. Strengths and deficiencies of systems are relative terms which have to be assessed against potential threats and risks. Important potential threats are analysed and, in particular their combinations into new, more severe threats. Here a viability approach for CIES's is used to analyse their strengths and deficiencies and devise new criteria showing how to make these systems more capable of dealing with threats and more capable of viable evolvement.

Es wird das Konzept für ein makroökonomisches Strukturmodell mit integriertem Innovationsprozesskern zur Analyse und Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vorgestellt. Das geplante Modell soll explizit die Auswirkungen des immer bedeutsamer werdenden IuK-technologischen Innovationsprozesses auf das Wirtschaftswachstum erfassen. Das Modell besteht aus einem makroökonometrischen Teil zur Darstellung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und einem systemdynamischen Teil zur Erfassung des Innovationsprozesses auf mikroökonomischer Ebene. Als Modellteile sind zwei bereits existierende Modelle, das HWWA-Modell und das ISIS-Modell, nach ihrer Erweiterung und Anpassung vorgesehen. Die erforderlichen Modifizierungen, das Verfahren zur Kopplung der beiden Partialmodelle mit unterschiedlicher Periodisierung und die nötigen Arbeitsschritte werden beschrieben.

The global environmental system, in particular through climate change, interacts with a globally changing socio- economic system. The risks of environmental extremes threaten life and welfare, while human activity is changing the environment. However, this human activity is undergoing significant changes. In the framework of the system dynamics model ISIS, we study the problem of how the socio-economic development can be pushed in a direction to reduce future vulnerability of society and economy to environmental risks. Obviously, such a strategy would be particularly valuable, if environmental extremes would become worse. We demonstrate in an idealized situation how to piggyback present innovation for solving environmental problems. This is analyzed for a two-region world. Region I is preferred by the traditional economy and by the economic elites, but the region is at risk through environmental factors (e.g. climate or tectonics). Region II is considerably less developed but also much less threatened by natural forces. Without environmental disasters and without the perception of environmental risk, the new economy develops in Region I while Region II remains backward. However, both, environmental disasters as well as the increased perception of risk (through experience and education) cause increased activity in Region II. This view of Region I and Region II is, for example, applicable to large parts of the Pacific Basin. Interestingly, instead of causing costs, this relocation of activity may be economically more efficient in the long run as it forces the actors to invest in the most modern technology. The underlying approach may be relevant for a much broader class of environmental problems.

Perhaps the greatest obstacle to large-scale solar energy generation is the intermittent nature of solar energy and the associated costly storage. This paper presents a method to optimize combinations of selected worldwide regions in different time zones with the surprising capability of providing sufficient electricity generation to overcome intermittency or reduce it to such an extent that substantially less storage and generation capacity are needed. The recent sharp drop in the cost of photovoltaic (PV) generation capability accompanied by worldwide increased investment in PV plants suggests a new economic base for cooperative efforts to sequentially combine day time insolation. The approach presented here optimizes two aspects, first, the selection of sites across large geographic areas, and second, the size and relative proportion of generation and storage capacity at each site. Our approach converts 20 years of daily insolation data by NASA Solar Sizer to hourly scale. The hourly data are used to assess and compare supranational distributed solar networks in different parts of the globe that have recently been proposed, and to subsequently optimize their generation capacity and storage. We show that linking regions in different time zones and on the two hemispheres can fully eliminate intermittency without the need for fuel and renewable energy other than solar.

Some very general problems of present society are: Is destruction of nature an inevitable consequence of human development - which of course would lead to a disaster for humankind? Is the present shortage of jobs a natural and ongoing outcome of scientific and technological development? Is it possible for societies to change voluntarily without huge pressures to avoid misery? Any information society offers a huge potential for environmentally and socially favorable as well as for disastrous options and behavior. Will these changes deteriorate or ameliorate the problems outlined above? What is the nature of these changes and of the present options? These options affect living, economy, working, housing and the environment. They are changing cities of all sizes as well as the rural areas. Responsible use of this huge potential is only possible if people are directly taught how to shape their own future and to understand and use new tools and approaches. Recent results from science show that success is only possible from cooperative approaches not from confrontational or competitive behavior. Hence, to get into a position which allows solutions it is necessary to demonstrate to everybody who is beginning to enter an information society that isolated approaches do not work, for example, that aim only at new jobs. We think an integrated approach exists to simultaneously solve all of the above mentioned problems. For this goal we are working together with citizens, companies, politicians and administrations to develop and implement an integrated future for living, economy, working, housing and the environment. This involves creativity, social cohesion, urban and landscape design of realistic dreams and humble consultance work. In particular, after three years of work with a city many people understood how to create new jobs and to support an information-based economy in such a way that the managers became the ones to push for “an outstanding ecological revitalization of the landscape to make the city competitive in the information society”. Thus, coalitions between economy and environmentalists are becoming reality which help to overcome economic problems. The end result is a theory and an implementation package for a viable future for people, economy and the environment applicable now. Abstract & Keywords → p. 159